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Explore/Statistics
Category

Machine Learning (Statistics)

stat.ML·Statistics·9 papers

Every entry carries a structured overview and the reproduction evidence collected so far. A paper is listed here when it carries the category as its primary field or as a secondary classification. Both are shown on the paper page.

Latest in stat.ML

Showing 1–9 of 9

LatestMost readWith code
Apr 22, 2026·Formal Sciences·260423.0036

On Bayesian Softmax-Gated Mixture-of-Experts Models

Nicola Bariletto, Huy Nguyen, Nhat Ho, Alessandro Rinaldo

This paper provides the first systematic theoretical analysis of Bayesian mixture-of-experts models with softmax gating, establishing posterior contraction rates for density estimation, convergence guarantees for parameter estimation, and strategies for selecting the number of experts.

Apr 22, 2026·Formal Sciences·260423.0037

Efficient Symbolic Computations for Identifying Causal Effects

Benjamin Hollering, Pratik Misra, Nils Sturma

This paper presents an efficient symbolic computation algorithm for determining whether causal effects can be identified from observational data with latent confounders in linear structural causal models. The algorithm finds the lowest-degree identifying formulas in quasi-polynomial time, making causal identifiability analysis practical for larger problems.

Apr 22, 2026·Formal Sciences·260423.0042

Decentralized Machine Learning with Centralized Performance Guarantees via Gibbs Algorithms

Yaiza Bermudez, Samir Perlaza, Iñaki Esnaola

This paper shows that decentralized machine learning can achieve the same performance as centralized learning by having clients share Gibbs measures (probability distributions over models) instead of raw data. The key innovation is using each client's Gibbs measure as a reference measure for the next client, effectively encoding prior information while preserving privacy.

Apr 20, 2026·Formal Sciences·260421.0043

Revisiting Active Sequential Prediction-Powered Mean Estimation

Maria-Eleni Sfyraki, Jun-Kun Wang

This paper analyzes active sequential prediction-powered mean estimation, where labels are selectively queried and ML predictions fill in the gaps. The authors find that contrary to intuition, using a nearly constant query probability (ignoring uncertainty) often produces tighter confidence intervals than adaptive uncertainty-based querying.

Apr 20, 2026·Formal Sciences·260421.0049

FUSE: Ensembling Verifiers with Zero Labeled Data

Joonhyuk Lee, Virginia Ma, Sarah Zhao, Yash Nair +3 more

FUSE is a method that combines multiple imperfect AI verifiers to better judge model outputs without needing any labeled training data. It matches or beats semi-supervised methods across diverse benchmarks by controlling how verifiers depend on each other using spectral algorithms.

Apr 20, 2026·Formal Sciences·260421.0066

Random Matrix Theory of Early-Stopped Gradient Flow: A Transient BBP Scenario

Florentin Coeurdoux, Grégoire Ferré, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

This paper develops a random matrix theory model that explains why neural networks exhibit a transient learning window where signal is detectable before overfitting occurs. The key mechanism is that anisotropy in input data creates fast and slow learning directions, causing a learnable eigenvalue to temporarily separate from noise before being reabsorbed.

Apr 20, 2026·Formal Sciences·260421.0070

Spectral bandits for smooth graph functions

Michal Valko, Rémi Munos, Branislav Kveton, Tomáš Kocák

This paper introduces a bandit algorithm for learning smooth functions over graphs, where neighboring nodes have similar payoffs. The approach achieves regret bounds that scale with an effective dimension rather than the total number of nodes, enabling efficient online learning for applications like content recommendation with thousands of items from just tens of evaluations.

Apr 20, 2026·Formal Sciences·260421.0079

Overcoming Selection Bias in Statistical Studies With Amortized Bayesian Inference

Jonas Arruda, Sophie Chervet, Paula Staudt, Andreas Wieser +5 more

This paper develops a simulation-based Bayesian inference method that corrects for selection bias by embedding the selection mechanism directly into the generative model, enabling accurate parameter estimation in complex models where traditional likelihood-based approaches fail. The approach allows both debiased estimation and explicit testing for bias presence without requiring tractable likelihoods.

Apr 20, 2026·Formal Sciences·260421.0082

Symmetry Guarantees Statistic Recovery in Variational Inference

Daniel Marks, Dario Paccagnan, Mark van der Wilk

This paper develops a general mathematical theory explaining how symmetries in target distributions and variational families guarantee that variational inference can accurately recover certain statistics, even when the approximation is imperfect. The framework unifies existing results and enables derivation of new recovery guarantees across diverse settings including directional statistics.

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